气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?

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DOI	10.1111/ele.13603
	Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?
	Simmonds E.G.; Cole E.F.; Sheldon B.C.; Coulson T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1461023X
起始页码	1766
结束页码	1775
卷号	23 期号:12
英文摘要	Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in the timing of life-history events. As a result, interactions between species can become disrupted, with potentially detrimental effects. Predicting these consequences has proven challenging. We apply structured population models to a well-characterised great tit-caterpillar model system and identify thresholds of temporal asynchrony, beyond which the predator population will rapidly go extinct. Our model suggests that phenotypic plasticity in predator breeding timing initially maintains temporal synchrony in the face of environmental change. However, under projections of climate change, predator plasticity was insufficient to keep pace with prey phenology. Directional evolution then accelerated, but could not prevent mismatch. Once predator phenology lagged behind prey by more than 24 days, rapid extinction was inevitable, despite previously stable population dynamics. Our projections suggest that current population stability could be masking a route to population collapse, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue. © 2020 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
关键词	Asynchrony climate change evolution extinction integral project model mismatch phenology plasticity predictions
英文关键词	animal; bomb; climate change; food chain; population dynamics; season; Animals; Bombs; Climate Change; Food Chain; Population Dynamics; Seasons
语种	英语
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204293
作者单位	Department of Zoology, Edward Grey Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematical Sciences and Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Simmonds E.G.,Cole E.F.,Sheldon B.C.,et al. Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?[J],2020,23(12).
APA	Simmonds E.G.,Cole E.F.,Sheldon B.C.,&Coulson T..(2020).Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?.Ecology Letters,23(12).
MLA	Simmonds E.G.,et al."Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?".Ecology Letters 23.12(2020).