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| DOI | 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116621 |
| Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption | |
| Tepp G. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 0012821X |
| 卷号 | 553 |
| 英文摘要 | The Failure Forecast Method (FFM) was introduced as an empirical model for forecasting catastrophic material failures related to natural hazards, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, with mixed success. During the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, the draining of the summit magma reservoir into the Lower East Rift Zone resulted in the formation of a new caldera at the summit. I tested the applicability of the FFM to caldera collapse by analyzing the cyclical earthquake swarms and ground deformation that occurred between 62 sudden major caldera collapse events. The progression of both the cumulative moment release of the cyclical earthquakes and the GNSS displacement show a major change in mid-June. In late May through early June, the progression of the parameters is consistent with strain localization or creep progression related to the development or activation of the ring fault system. From late June until the end of the eruption, parameter progression is roughly steady with initial accelerating increases in cumulative moment and displacement that shift to approximately linear progression. Analysis of repeating earthquake families in the cyclical swarms showed that the behavior of the repeaters was consistent with that of the cyclical swarms as a whole and suggested that each family undergoes its own progression of activation to termination. While the FFM analysis identified the system change in mid-June, it did not demonstrate an ability to forecast collapse events or the end of the eruption. © 2020 |
| 关键词 | caldera collapsefailure forecast methodKilaueamaterial failurevolcano geodesyvolcano seismology |
| 英文关键词 | Chemical activation; Earthquakes; Failure (mechanical); Forecasting; Volcanoes; Earthquake swarms; Ground deformations; Linear progression; Magma reservoirs; Material failures; Repeating earthquake; Strain localizations; Volcanic eruptions; Activation analysis; caldera; collapse structure; deformation mechanism; earthquake swarm; failure mechanism; forecasting method; geodesy; GNSS; ground motion; landslide; rift zone; volcanic earthquake; volcanic eruption; Hawaii [(ISL) Hawaiian Islands]; Hawaii [United States]; Hawaiian Islands; Kilauea |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Earth and Planetary Science Letters
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/203309 |
| 作者单位 | U. S. Geological Survey, Alaska Volcano Observatory, 4230 University Drive Suite 100, Anchorage, AK 99508, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tepp G.. Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption[J],2021,553. |
| APA | Tepp G..(2021).Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,553. |
| MLA | Tepp G.."Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption".Earth and Planetary Science Letters 553(2021). |
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