气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021
	The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile
	Scheiter M.; Schaefer M.; Flández E.; Bozkurt D.; Greve R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3637
结束页码	3654
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	Glaciers and ice caps are thinning and retreating along the entire Andes ridge, and drivers of this mass loss vary between the different climate zones. The southern part of the Andes (Wet Andes) has the highest abundance of glaciers in number and size, and a proper understanding of ice dynamics is important to assess their evolution. In this contribution, we apply the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) to the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in the Chilean Lake District (40g g S, 72g g W; Wet Andes) to reproduce its current state and to project its evolution until the end of the 21st century under different global warming scenarios. First, we create a model spin-up using observed surface mass balance data on the south-eastern catchment, extrapolating them to the whole ice cap using an aspect-dependent parameterization. This spin-up is able to reproduce the most important present-day glacier features. Based on the spin-up, we then run the model 80 years into the future, forced by projected surface temperature anomalies from different global climate models under different radiative pathway scenarios to obtain estimates of the ice cap's state by the end of the 21st century. The mean projected ice volume losses are 56±16g % (RCP2.6), 81±6g % (RCP4.5), and 97±2g % (RCP8.5) with respect to the ice volume estimated by radio-echo sounding data from 2013. We estimate the uncertainty of our projections based on the spread of the results when forcing with different global climate models and on the uncertainty associated with the variation of the equilibrium line altitude with temperature change. Considering our results, we project a considerable deglaciation of the Chilean Lake District by the end of the 21st century. © Author(s) 2021.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202420
作者单位	Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Instituto de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Meteorologiá, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Institut für Geophysik und Geoinformatik, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Freiberg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scheiter M.,Schaefer M.,Flández E.,et al. The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile[J],2021,15(8).
APA	Scheiter M.,Schaefer M.,Flández E.,Bozkurt D.,&Greve R..(2021).The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile.Cryosphere,15(8).
MLA	Scheiter M.,et al."The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile".Cryosphere 15.8(2021).