气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) - Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021
	The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) - Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
	Quiquet A.; Dumas C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	1015
结束页码	1030
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe, making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increased mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single-source contribution after the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - phase 6 (ISMIP6). While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can thus be from as low as 20 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) to as high as 160 mm SLE. Amongst the models tested in ISMIP6, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - phase 6 (CMIP6) models produce larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low-emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mm SLE in 2100 in our simulations. In addition, the dynamical contribution to ice thickness change is small compared to the impact of surface mass balance. This suggests that mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin. With additional sensitivity experiments we also show that the spread in mass loss is only weakly affected by the choice of the ice sheet model mechanical parameters. © 2021 Author(s).
英文关键词	climate forcing; CMIP; global warming; ice sheet; ice thickness; numerical model; sea level change; simulation; vulnerability; warming; Antarctica; Arctic; Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes; France; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet; Grenoble; Isere
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202407
作者单位	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Quiquet A.,Dumas C.. The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) - Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century[J],2021,15(2).
APA	Quiquet A.,&Dumas C..(2021).The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) - Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century.Cryosphere,15(2).
MLA	Quiquet A.,et al."The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) - Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century".Cryosphere 15.2(2021).