气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Bayesian calibration of firn densification models

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020
	Bayesian calibration of firn densification models
	Verjans V.; Leeson A.A.; Nemeth C.; Max Stevens C.; Kuipers Munneke P.; Noël B.; Van Wessem J.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3017
结束页码	3032
卷号	14 期号:9
英文摘要	Firn densification modelling is key to understanding ice sheet mass balance, ice sheet surface elevation change, and the age difference between ice and the air in enclosed air bubbles. This has resulted in the development of many firn models, all relying to a certain degree on parameter calibration against observed data. We present a novel Bayesian calibration method for these parameters and apply it to three existing firn models. Using an extensive dataset of firn cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reach optimal parameter estimates applicable to both ice sheets. We then use these to simulate firn density and evaluate against independent observations. Our simulations show a significant decrease (24% and 56%) in observation-model discrepancy for two models and a smaller increase (15%) for the third. As opposed to current methods, the Bayesian framework allows for robust uncertainty analysis related to parameter values. Based on our results, we review some inherent model assumptions and demonstrate how firn model choice and uncertainties in parameter values cause spread in key model outputs. © 2020 Author(s).
英文关键词	Bayesian analysis; calibration; detection method; model
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202234
作者单位	Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4QY, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YF, United Kingdom; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Verjans V.,Leeson A.A.,Nemeth C.,et al. Bayesian calibration of firn densification models[J],2020,14(9).
APA	Verjans V..,Leeson A.A..,Nemeth C..,Max Stevens C..,Kuipers Munneke P..,...&Van Wessem J.M..(2020).Bayesian calibration of firn densification models.Cryosphere,14(9).
MLA	Verjans V.,et al."Bayesian calibration of firn densification models".Cryosphere 14.9(2020).