气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: Comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution

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DOI	10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020
	Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: Comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution
	Peyaud V.; Bouchayer C.; Gagliardini O.; Vincent C.; Gillet-Chaulet F.; Six D.; Laarman O.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3979
结束页码	3994
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	Alpine glaciers are shrinking and rapidly loosing mass in a warming climate. Glacier modeling is required to assess the future consequences of these retreats on water resources, the hydropower industry and risk management. However, the performance of such ice flow modeling is generally difficult to evaluate because of the lack of long-term glaciological observations. Here, we assess the performance of the Elmer/Ice full Stokes ice flow model using the long dataset of mass balance, thickness change, ice flow velocity and snout fluctuation measurements obtained between 1979 and 2015 on the Mer de Glace glacier, France. Ice flow modeling results are compared in detail to comprehensive glaciological observations over 4 decades including both a period of glacier expansion preceding a long period of decay. To our knowledge, a comparison to data at this detail is unprecedented. We found that the model accurately reconstructs the velocity, elevation and length variations of this glacier despite some discrepancies that remain unexplained. The calibrated and validated model was then applied to simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace from 2015 to 2050 using 26 different climate scenarios. Depending on the climate scenarios, the largest glacier in France, with a length of 20 km, could retreat by 2 to 6 km over the next 3 decades. © 2020 Author(s).
英文关键词	comparative study; forecasting method; future prospect; glacial-interglacial cycle; numerical model; observational method
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202178
作者单位	Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Cnrs, Ird, Grenoble Inp, Ige, Grenoble, 38000, France; Njord Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, 0316, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peyaud V.,Bouchayer C.,Gagliardini O.,et al. Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: Comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution[J],2020,14(11).
APA	Peyaud V..,Bouchayer C..,Gagliardini O..,Vincent C..,Gillet-Chaulet F..,...&Laarman O..(2020).Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: Comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution.Cryosphere,14(11).
MLA	Peyaud V.,et al."Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: Comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution".Cryosphere 14.11(2020).