气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020
	Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
	Mudryk L.; Santolaria-Otín M.; Krinner G.; Ménégoz M.; Derksen C.; Brutel-Vuilmet C.; Brady M.; Essery R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	2495
结束页码	2514
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981-2018 are negative in all months and exceed-50 × 103 km2 yr-1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately-5 Gtyr-1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981-2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981-2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995-2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent. © 2020 Author(s).
英文关键词	climate change; climate effect; climate prediction; CMIP; historical record; snow cover; trend analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202163
作者单位	Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, M3H 5T4, Canada; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Cnrs, Ige, Grenoble, 38000, France; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mudryk L.,Santolaria-Otín M.,Krinner G.,et al. Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble[J],2020,14(7).
APA	Mudryk L..,Santolaria-Otín M..,Krinner G..,Ménégoz M..,Derksen C..,...&Essery R..(2020).Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble.Cryosphere,14(7).
MLA	Mudryk L.,et al."Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble".Cryosphere 14.7(2020).