气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Systematic bias of Tibetan Plateau snow cover in subseasonal-to-seasonal models

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-14-3565-2020
	Systematic bias of Tibetan Plateau snow cover in subseasonal-to-seasonal models
	Li W.; Hu S.; Hsu P.-C.; Guo W.; Wei J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19940416
起始页码	3565
结束页码	3579
卷号	14 期号:10
英文摘要	Accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) atmospheric forecasts and hydrological forecasts have considerable socioeconomic value. This study conducts a multimodel comparison of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) prediction skill using three models (ECMWF, NCEP and CMA) selected from the S2S project database to understand their performance in capturing TPSC variability during wintertime. S2S models can skillfully forecast TPSC within a lead time of 2 weeks but show limited skill beyond 3 weeks. Compared with the observational snow cover analysis, all three models tend to overestimate the area of TPSC. Another remarkable issue regarding the TPSC forecast is the increasing TPSC with forecast lead time, which further increases the systematic positive biases of TPSC in the S2S models at longer forecast lead times. All three S2S models consistently exaggerate the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. The exaggeration of precipitation is prominent and always exists throughout the model integration. Systematic bias of TPSC therefore occurs and accumulates with the model integration time. Such systematic biases of TPSC influence the forecasted surface air temperature in the S2S models. The surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau becomes colder with increasing forecast lead time in the S2S models. Numerical experiments further confirm the causality. © 2020 Author(s).
英文关键词	air temperature; forecasting method; hydrological regime; precipitation assessment; prediction; seasonality; snow cover; socioeconomic status; China; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/202144
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li W.,Hu S.,Hsu P.-C.,et al. Systematic bias of Tibetan Plateau snow cover in subseasonal-to-seasonal models[J],2020,14(10).
APA	Li W.,Hu S.,Hsu P.-C.,Guo W.,&Wei J..(2020).Systematic bias of Tibetan Plateau snow cover in subseasonal-to-seasonal models.Cryosphere,14(10).
MLA	Li W.,et al."Systematic bias of Tibetan Plateau snow cover in subseasonal-to-seasonal models".Cryosphere 14.10(2020).