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| DOI | 10.1029/2020RG000704 |
| Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards | |
| Merz B.; Kuhlicke C.; Kunz M.; Pittore M.; Babeyko A.; Bresch D.N.; Domeisen D.I.V.; Feser F.; Koszalka I.; Kreibich H.; Pantillon F.; Parolai S.; Pinto J.G.; Punge H.J.; Rivalta E.; Schröter K.; Strehlow K.; Weisse R.; Wurpts A. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 87551209 |
| 卷号 | 58期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. ©2020. The Authors. |
| 英文关键词 | early warning; impact forecasting; natural hazards |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Reviews of Geophysics
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/188073 |
| 作者单位 | Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Department Urban and Environmental Sociology, UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; Section Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; EURAC Research, Institute for Earth Observation, Bolzano, Italy; Section Geodynamic Modeling, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University and Stockholm Unive... |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Merz B.,Kuhlicke C.,Kunz M.,et al. Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards[J],2020,58(4). |
| APA | Merz B..,Kuhlicke C..,Kunz M..,Pittore M..,Babeyko A..,...&Wurpts A..(2020).Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards.Reviews of Geophysics,58(4). |
| MLA | Merz B.,et al."Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards".Reviews of Geophysics 58.4(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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