气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): What Controls Variations in Aftershock Productivity?

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DOI	10.1029/2019JB018111
	What Controls Variations in Aftershock Productivity?
	Dascher-Cousineau K.; Brodsky E.E.; Lay T.; Goebel T.H.W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699313
卷号	125 期号:2
英文摘要	The number of aftershocks increases with mainshock size following a well-defined scaling law. However, excursions from the average behavior are common. This variability is particularly concerning for large earthquakes where the number of aftershocks varies by factors of 100 for mainshocks of comparable magnitude. Do observable factors lead to differences in aftershock behavior? We examine aftershock productivity relative to the global average for all mainshocks ((Formula presented.)) from 1990 to 2019. A global map of earthquake productivity highlights the influence of tectonic regimes. Earthquake depth, lithosphere age, and plate boundary type correspond well with earthquake productivity. We investigate the role of mainshock attributes by compiling source dimensions, radiated seismic energy, stress drop, and a measure of slip heterogeneity based on finite-fault source inversions for the largest earthquakes from 1990 to 2017. On an individual basis, stress drop, normalized rupture width, and aspect ratio most strongly correlate with aftershock productivity. A multivariate analysis shows that a particular set of parameters (dip, lithospheric age, and normalized rupture area) combines well to improve predictions of aftershock productivity on a cross-validated data set. Our overall analysis is consistent with a model in which the volumetric abundance of nearby stressed faults controls the aftershock productivity rather than variations in source stress. Thus, we suggest a complementary approach to aftershock forecasts based on geological and rupture properties rather than local calibration alone. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	aftershock productivity; aftershocks; earthquake forecasting; earthquake source physics; earthquake statistics; seismic hazard
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187970
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dascher-Cousineau K.,Brodsky E.E.,Lay T.,et al. What Controls Variations in Aftershock Productivity?[J],2020,125(2).
APA	Dascher-Cousineau K.,Brodsky E.E.,Lay T.,&Goebel T.H.W..(2020).What Controls Variations in Aftershock Productivity?.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,125(2).
MLA	Dascher-Cousineau K.,et al."What Controls Variations in Aftershock Productivity?".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125.2(2020).