气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Data Assimilation-Based Early Forecasting of Long-Period Ground Motions for Large Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough

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DOI	10.1029/2019JB019047
	Data Assimilation-Based Early Forecasting of Long-Period Ground Motions for Large Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough
	Oba A.; Furumura T.; Maeda T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699313
卷号	125 期号:6
英文摘要	Long-period (LP) ground motions with periods of ~2–10 s caused by large earthquakes are strongly amplified in sedimentary basins, posing serious threats to modern cities to cause resonance and damage to skyscrapers, oil storage tanks, long-span bridges, and other structures with long natural periods. Since the LP ground motions are composed of surface waves traveling for longer distances with much slower speeds than body waves, an alert could be issued by detecting the spread of strong ground motion near the source and before large ground motions occur in distant basins. In this study, an early forecasting of LP ground motions is proposed based on data assimilation of observed ground motions obtained by high-density, nationwide seismic networks and a computer simulation of the seismic wave propagation using a high-resolution subsurface structure model. The shaking of the LP ground motions in the distant basins is immediately forecasted by high-speed supercomputers from current data-assimilated wavefield. In addition, the forecasting speed is significantly improved by using Green's functions, representing the wave propagation response from the data assimilation stations to a forecast target site. The effectiveness of this data assimilation-based forecasting of LP ground motions in conjunction with using Green's functions is demonstrated by numerical tests using the observed strong motion records from the 2004 Off Kii Peninsula earthquake in Japan (Mw 7.4) together with synthetic seismograms of anticipated large earthquake scenarios in the Nankai Trough. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	data assimilation; early forecasting; Green's function; long-period ground motion; Nankai Trough earthquake; offshore cable station
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187827
作者单位	Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Kozo Keikaku Engineering Inc., Tokyo, Japan; Graduate School of Science and Technology, Hirosaki University, Aomori, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Oba A.,Furumura T.,Maeda T.. Data Assimilation-Based Early Forecasting of Long-Period Ground Motions for Large Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough[J],2020,125(6).
APA	Oba A.,Furumura T.,&Maeda T..(2020).Data Assimilation-Based Early Forecasting of Long-Period Ground Motions for Large Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,125(6).
MLA	Oba A.,et al."Data Assimilation-Based Early Forecasting of Long-Period Ground Motions for Large Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125.6(2020).