气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Is Coulomb Stress the Best Choice for Aftershock Forecasting?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JB019553
	Is Coulomb Stress the Best Choice for Aftershock Forecasting?
	Sharma S.; Hainzl S.; Zöeller G.; Holschneider M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699313
卷号	125 期号:9
英文摘要	The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is the most commonly used method for predicting spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, large uncertainties are always associated with the calculation of Coulomb stress change. The uncertainties mainly arise due to nonunique slip inversions and unknown receiver faults; especially for the latter, results are highly dependent on the choice of the assumed receiver mechanism. Based on binary tests (aftershocks yes/no), recent studies suggest that alternative stress quantities, a distance-slip probabilistic model as well as deep neural network (DNN) approaches, all are superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanism. To challenge this conclusion, which might have large implications, we use 289 slip inversions from SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered half-space and variable receiver mechanisms. We also analyze the effect of the magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration to verify the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the ranking of stress metrics. The observations suggest that introducing a layered half-space does not improve the stress maps and ROC curves. However, results significantly improve for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods but without changing the ranking. We also go beyond binary testing and apply alternative statistics to test the ability to estimate aftershock numbers, which confirm that simple stress metrics perform better than the classic Coulomb failure stress calculations and are also better than the distance-slip probabilistic model. ©2020. The Authors.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187637
作者单位	Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sharma S.,Hainzl S.,Zöeller G.,et al. Is Coulomb Stress the Best Choice for Aftershock Forecasting?[J],2020,125(9).
APA	Sharma S.,Hainzl S.,Zöeller G.,&Holschneider M..(2020).Is Coulomb Stress the Best Choice for Aftershock Forecasting?.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,125(9).
MLA	Sharma S.,et al."Is Coulomb Stress the Best Choice for Aftershock Forecasting?".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125.9(2020).