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| DOI | 10.1029/2020JB020887 |
| Statistics and Forecasting of Aftershocks During the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence | |
| Shcherbakov R. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 21699313 |
| 卷号 | 126期号:2 |
| 英文摘要 | The 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence represents a complex pattern of seismicity that is characterized by the occurrence of a well-defined foreshock sequence followed by a mainshock and subsequent aftershocks. In this study, a detailed statistical analysis of the sequence is performed. Particularly, the parametric modeling of the frequency-magnitude statistics and the earthquake occurrence rate is carried out. It is shown that the clustering of earthquakes plays an important role during the evolution of this sequence. In addition, the problem of constraining the magnitude of the largest expected aftershocks to occur during the evolution of the sequence is addressed. In order to do this, two approaches are considered. The first one is based on the extreme value theory, whereas the second one uses the Bayesian predictive framework. The latter approach has allowed to incorporate the complex earthquake clustering through the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) process and the uncertainties associated with the model parameters into the computation of the corresponding probabilities. The results indicate that the inclusion of the foreshock sequence into the analysis produces higher probabilities for the occurrence of the largest expected aftershocks after the M7.1 mainshock compared to the approach based on the extreme value distribution combined with the Omori-Utsu formula for the earthquake rate. Several statistical tests are applied to verify the forecast. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| 英文关键词 | aftershocks; Bayesian predictive distribution; ETAS model; extreme value theory; Omori-Utsu formula; Ridgecrest earthquake sequence |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187358 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shcherbakov R.. Statistics and Forecasting of Aftershocks During the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence[J],2021,126(2). |
| APA | Shcherbakov R..(2021).Statistics and Forecasting of Aftershocks During the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,126(2). |
| MLA | Shcherbakov R.."Statistics and Forecasting of Aftershocks During the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126.2(2021). |
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