气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Methodological Reconstruction of Historical Seismic Events From Anecdotal Accounts of Destructive Tsunamis: A Case Study for the Great 1852 Banda Arc Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JB021107
	Methodological Reconstruction of Historical Seismic Events From Anecdotal Accounts of Destructive Tsunamis: A Case Study for the Great 1852 Banda Arc Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami
	Ringer H.; Whitehead J.P.; Krometis J.; Harris R.A.; Glatt-Holtz N.; Giddens S.; Ashcraft C.; Carver G.; Robertson A.; Harward M.; Fullwood J.; Lightheart K.; Hilton R.; Avery A.; Kesler C.; Morrise M.; Klein M.H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699313
卷号	126 期号:4
英文摘要	We demonstrate the efficacy of a Bayesian statistical inversion framework for reconstructing the likely characteristics of large pre-instrumentation earthquakes from historical records of tsunami observations. Our framework is designed and implemented for the estimation of the location and magnitude of seismic events from anecdotal accounts of tsunamis including shoreline wave arrival times, heights, and inundation lengths over a variety of spatially separated observation locations. The primary advantage of this approach is that all of the assumptions made in the inversion process are incorporated explicitly into the mathematical framework. As an initial test case we use our framework to reconstruct the great 1852 earthquake and tsunami of eastern Indonesia. Relying on the assumption that these observations were produced by a subducting thrust event, the posterior distribution indicates that the observables were the result of a massive mega-thrust event with magnitude near 8.8 Mw and a likely rupture zone in the north-eastern Banda arc. The distribution of predicted epicentral locations overlaps with the largest major seismic gap in the region as indicated by instrumentally recorded seismic events. These results provide a geologic and seismic context for hazard risk assessment in coastal communities experiencing growing population and urbanization in Indonesia. In addition, the methodology demonstrated here highlights the potential for applying a Bayesian approach to enhance understanding of the seismic history of other subduction zones around the world. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Banda arc; Bayesian inference; historical earthquakes; Indonesia; mega-thrust earthquake; tsunami
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187208
作者单位	Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States; Department of Mathematics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, United States; Advanced Research Computing, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States; Department of Geological Sciences, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, United States; Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, United States; Department of Mathematics, Notre Dame University, South Bend, IN, United States; Department of Mathematics, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ringer H.,Whitehead J.P.,Krometis J.,et al. Methodological Reconstruction of Historical Seismic Events From Anecdotal Accounts of Destructive Tsunamis: A Case Study for the Great 1852 Banda Arc Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami[J],2021,126(4).
APA	Ringer H..,Whitehead J.P..,Krometis J..,Harris R.A..,Glatt-Holtz N..,...&Klein M.H..(2021).Methodological Reconstruction of Historical Seismic Events From Anecdotal Accounts of Destructive Tsunamis: A Case Study for the Great 1852 Banda Arc Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,126(4).
MLA	Ringer H.,et al."Methodological Reconstruction of Historical Seismic Events From Anecdotal Accounts of Destructive Tsunamis: A Case Study for the Great 1852 Banda Arc Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126.4(2021).