气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Energy-Based Scenarios for Great Thrust-Type Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough Subduction Zone, Southwest Japan, Using an Interseismic Slip-Deficit Model

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DOI	10.1029/2020JB020417
	Energy-Based Scenarios for Great Thrust-Type Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough Subduction Zone, Southwest Japan, Using an Interseismic Slip-Deficit Model
	Noda A.; Saito T.; Fukuyama E.; Urata Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699313
卷号	126 期号:5
英文摘要	We propose a new energy-based method to construct rupture scenarios for anticipated megathrust earthquakes by using an interseismic slip-deficit model. Our method bridges the gap between two well-known approaches, namely, kinematic and dynamic modeling. We construct the source model as a static-slip distribution, greatly reducing the computational load, and then examine whether the model follows the mechanics of faulting from the perspective of the energy balance of fault rupture. To quantify the energy balance, we introduce “residual energy,” which is defined as the difference between the strain energy released by the fault slip and the energy dissipated on the fault. Positive residual energy is a necessary condition for earthquake generation, which means that even if slip deficits accumulate, an earthquake does not occur unless the strain energy accumulation exceeds the dissipated energy. We apply the method to interplate earthquakes in the Nankai trough subduction zone, southwest Japan. Assuming a stress accumulation time of 150 years, 5 out of 10 scenarios meet the necessary condition, and one of these models can explain the crustal deformation of a historical Nankai earthquake. The significant amount of strain energy released by a rupture off Cape Muroto makes the scenario involving rupture of the whole subduction zone possible. The estimation of residual energy suggests that fault ruptures reaching the Nankai trough require more strain energy than buried ruptures. All of the scenarios eventually meet the condition, because the strain energy increases more with time than the fracture energy predicted from empirical scaling relationships. © 2021. The Authors.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187153
作者单位	National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan; Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Now at Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Noda A.,Saito T.,Fukuyama E.,et al. Energy-Based Scenarios for Great Thrust-Type Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough Subduction Zone, Southwest Japan, Using an Interseismic Slip-Deficit Model[J],2021,126(5).
APA	Noda A.,Saito T.,Fukuyama E.,&Urata Y..(2021).Energy-Based Scenarios for Great Thrust-Type Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough Subduction Zone, Southwest Japan, Using an Interseismic Slip-Deficit Model.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,126(5).
MLA	Noda A.,et al."Energy-Based Scenarios for Great Thrust-Type Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough Subduction Zone, Southwest Japan, Using an Interseismic Slip-Deficit Model".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126.5(2021).