气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models

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DOI	10.1029/2020JB020781
	Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models
	Salazar-Monroy E.F.; Melgar D.; Jaimes M.A.; Ramirez-Guzman L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699313
卷号	126 期号:6
英文摘要	The Mexican subduction zone is prone to large earthquakes that impact populated coastal and inland cities due to strong shaking and can generate potentially disastrous tsunamis. Even though the population and infrastructure on the Mexican Pacific coast may experience tsunamis, only sparse instrumentation and scarce tsunami observations exist for both, historical and instrumental, records. This study presents a probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis that can provide information for managing and assessing risks in the region. We use ensembles of numerical tsunami simulations to estimate the probability of exceedance of the maximum tsunami amplitudes, considering the contribution of near sources and slip heterogeneities, for return periods of 100, 500, and 1,000 years. According to 7,946 simulated scenarios, the amplitudes can reach up to 9.5 m along the shoreline. Moreover, tsunami hazard maps, curves, and disaggregation analyses reveal critical hazard points along the coasts of the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Mexican subduction zone; probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis; stochastic slip models; tsunami hazard curves and maps
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/187073
作者单位	Programa de Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, United States; Coordinación de Ingeniería Estructural, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; Coordinación de Ingeniería Sismológica, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Salazar-Monroy E.F.,Melgar D.,Jaimes M.A.,et al. Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models[J],2021,126(6).
APA	Salazar-Monroy E.F.,Melgar D.,Jaimes M.A.,&Ramirez-Guzman L..(2021).Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,126(6).
MLA	Salazar-Monroy E.F.,et al."Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models".Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126.6(2021).