气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): MJO Wind Energy and Prediction of El Niño

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JC016732
	MJO Wind Energy and Prediction of El Niño
	Lybarger N.D.; Shin C.-S.; Stan C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	21699275
卷号	125 期号:10
英文摘要	This study applies the energetic framework developed to quantify the interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to El Niño forecasting. The MJO wind power, measured by the covariability of MJO-related wind stress and oceanic Kelvin wave activity, is combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and two new indices are proposed. The MJO-Kelvin wave-ENSO (MaKE) index is proposed as an ENSO predictor and is shown to slightly outperform Niño 3.4 when applied to observational data sets and to greatly outperform Niño 3.4 when applied to CFSv2 reforecasts of the years 1980–2014. The MJO-Kelvin wave Influence (MaKI) index is proposed to predict MJO influence on developing El Niño events. This index performs reasonably well when applied to observations. The forecast skill of MaKI in the CFSv2 reforecasts suggests that this model does not predict the observed MJO-ENSO relationship as measured by this index. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	air-sea interaction; ENSO; forecasting; MJO
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186637
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Now at National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lybarger N.D.,Shin C.-S.,Stan C.. MJO Wind Energy and Prediction of El Niño[J],2020,125(10).
APA	Lybarger N.D.,Shin C.-S.,&Stan C..(2020).MJO Wind Energy and Prediction of El Niño.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,125(10).
MLA	Lybarger N.D.,et al."MJO Wind Energy and Prediction of El Niño".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125.10(2020).