气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Influence of Hurricane Wind Field Variability on Real-Time Forecast Simulations of the Coastal Environment

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DOI	10.1029/2020JC016489
	Influence of Hurricane Wind Field Variability on Real-Time Forecast Simulations of the Coastal Environment
	Rey A.J.M.; Mulligan R.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	21699275
卷号	126 期号:1
英文摘要	Dynamic conditions occur in the coastal ocean during severe storms. Forecasting these conditions is challenging, and large-scale numerical models require significant computing power. In this paper, we describe a real-time modeling system (DUNEX-RT), developed in support of the During Nearshore Event experiment (DUNEX) off the coast of North Carolina, United States of America. The model is run with wave, current, and water level boundary conditions from larger-scale models, and provides 36-h forecasts of significant wave height, depth-averaged velocity, and water levels every 6-h using Delft3D-SWAN. Observations and forecasts run at different times are compared and communicated via an interactive website to verify model performance in real-time and to visualize uncertainty from changing inputs. Here, we evaluate model sensitivity to inputs from seven different atmospheric hindcasts and two atmospheric forecasts for Hurricane Dorian in September 2019. The results emphasize the importance of accurate wind forcing, with significant differences observed between the output model results for different input atmospheric forcing models and forecasts produced at different times. The best results were achieved using atmospheric forcing from the high resolution rapid refresh model, and overall, DUNEX-RT had low errors at 33 wave, water level, and current sites across the system. The model results for water levels and significant wave heights were also accurate over a longer period of 49 days. Overall, the good forecast skill achieved for the wide range of conditions over this time results suggest that this high-resolution regional approach could be applied to forecast conditions in other coastal areas. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	coastal engineering; coastal observations; nearshore oceanography; numerical modeling; storm surge; surface waves
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186510
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rey A.J.M.,Mulligan R.P.. Influence of Hurricane Wind Field Variability on Real-Time Forecast Simulations of the Coastal Environment[J],2021,126(1).
APA	Rey A.J.M.,&Mulligan R.P..(2021).Influence of Hurricane Wind Field Variability on Real-Time Forecast Simulations of the Coastal Environment.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,126(1).
MLA	Rey A.J.M.,et al."Influence of Hurricane Wind Field Variability on Real-Time Forecast Simulations of the Coastal Environment".Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 126.1(2021).