气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event in the South China Monsoon Region

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JD031313
	Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event in the South China Monsoon Region
	Wu N.; Zhuang X.; Min J.; Meng Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:4
英文摘要	Warm-sector torrential rainfall (WR) in the South China monsoon region has long been a forecasting challenge because of the limited capability of numerical models in heavy rainfall without strong synoptic forcing. Through convection-allowing ensemble forecasts, this study explores both the intrinsic and practical predictability of a coastal WR event on 19–20 May 2015 during SCMREX (the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment). The results show a large variability in forecast performance among different members, indicating the practical limit of predictability. In general, GOOD members tend to have a stronger low-level southerly wind over the sea (monsoon flow) and a considerable surface cooling over the northern mountains (associated with land/mountain breeze). Further investigation via ensemble-based sensitivity analysis shows that the occurrence of WR is closely related to the nighttime strengthened (cooling) southerly wind (temperatures) over the sea (mountains), 1–3 hr prior to the convection initiation. In contrast, spatial scaling of the initial perturbations has little impact on the forecast after 3 hr and the meso-γ-scale rainfall is fully decorrelated after 12 hr, suggesting an intrinsic predictability limit for lead times as short as 6–12 hr. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with the initial-condition differences reduced by almost an order of magnitude smaller than typical ensemble perturbations, with the results demonstrating that the rainstorm might be near the point of bifurcation, where predictability is intrinsically limited. The limits of both intrinsic and practical predictability highlight the need for rapidly updated and probabilistic convection-allowing ensemble forecasts for events of this type. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	intrinsic predictability; monsoon region; practical predictability; torrential rainfall; warm-sector
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186183
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu N.,Zhuang X.,Min J.,et al. Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event in the South China Monsoon Region[J],2020,125(4).
APA	Wu N.,Zhuang X.,Min J.,&Meng Z..(2020).Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event in the South China Monsoon Region.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(4).
MLA	Wu N.,et al."Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of a Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall Event in the South China Monsoon Region".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.4(2020).