气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems

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DOI	10.1029/2019JD031739
	Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems
	Hermanson L.; Bilbao R.; Dunstone N.; Ménégoz M.; Ortega P.; Pohlmann H.; Robson J.I.; Smith D.M.; Strand G.; Timmreck C.; Yeager S.; Danabasoglu G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:9
英文摘要	Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption. ©2020 Crown copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.
英文关键词	climate; coupled model; ENSO; NAO; volcano
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/186036
作者单位	Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; National Centre for Scientific Research, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hermanson L.,Bilbao R.,Dunstone N.,et al. Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems[J],2020,125(9).
APA	Hermanson L..,Bilbao R..,Dunstone N..,Ménégoz M..,Ortega P..,...&Danabasoglu G..(2020).Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(9).
MLA	Hermanson L.,et al."Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.9(2020).