气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JD032670
	Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime
	Xiang B.; Sun Y.Q.; Chen J.-H.; Johnson N.C.; Jiang X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:13
英文摘要	Subseasonal climate prediction has emerged as a top forecast priority but remains a great challenge. Subseasonal extreme prediction is even more difficult than predicting the time-mean variability. Here we show that the wintertime cold extremes, measured by the frequency of extreme cold days (ECDs), are skillfully predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model 2–4 weeks in advance over a large fraction of the Northern Hemisphere land region. The physical basis for such skill in predicting ECDs is primarily rooted in predicting a small subset of leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of ECDs identified from observations, including two modes in Eurasia (North Atlantic Oscillation and Eurasia Meridional Dipole mode) and three modes in North America (North Pacific Oscillation, Pacific-North America teleconnection mode, and the North America Zonal Dipole mode). It is of interest to note that these two modes in Eurasia are more predictable than the three leading modes in North America mainly due to their longer persistence. The source of predictability for the leading EOF modes mainly originates from atmospheric internal modes and the land-atmosphere coupling. All these modes are strongly coupled to dynamically coherent planetary-scale atmospheric circulations, which not only amplify but also prolong the surface air temperature anomaly, serving as a source of predictability at subseasonal timescales. The Eurasian Meridional Dipole mode is also tied to the lower-boundary snow anomaly, and the snow-atmosphere coupling helps sustain this mode and provides a source of predictability. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	extremes; land-atmosphere coupling; predictability sources; subseasonal prediction; surface air temperature
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185946
作者单位	NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiang B.,Sun Y.Q.,Chen J.-H.,et al. Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime[J],2020,125(13).
APA	Xiang B.,Sun Y.Q.,Chen J.-H.,Johnson N.C.,&Jiang X..(2020).Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(13).
MLA	Xiang B.,et al."Subseasonal Prediction of Land Cold Extremes in Boreal Wintertime".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.13(2020).