气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate

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DOI	10.1029/2019JD032100
	The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate
	Yuan J.; Stein M.L.; Kopp R.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:19
英文摘要	The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. Using 35 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), we investigate the long-term evolution of the joint distribution of summer relative humidity (RH) and daily maximum temperature (Tmax) near four U.S. cities (New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans) under the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We estimate the conditional quantiles of RH given Tmax with quantile regression models, using functions of temperature for each city in July for three time periods (1990–2005, 2026–2035, and 2071–2080). Quality-of-fit diagnostics indicate that these models accurately estimate conditional quantiles for each city. As expected, each quantile of Tmax increases from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080, while mean RH decreases modestly. Conditional upon a fixed quantile of Tmax, the median and high quantiles of RH decrease, while those of the Heat Index (HI) and dew point both increase. This result suggests that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress measured by metrics considering both humidity and temperature in a warming climate will increase faster than that measured by temperatures alone would indicate. For a fixed Tmax, the high quantiles of RH (and thus of HI and dew point) increase from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080 in all four cities. This result suggests that the heat stress of a day at a given Tmax will increase in a warming climate due to the increase of RH. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	daily maximum temperature; evolving of distributions; heat extremes; quantile regression; relative humidity
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185718
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Department of Statistics, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yuan J.,Stein M.L.,Kopp R.E.. The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate[J],2020,125(19).
APA	Yuan J.,Stein M.L.,&Kopp R.E..(2020).The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(19).
MLA	Yuan J.,et al."The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.19(2020).