气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019JD032321
	Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool
	Bock L.; Lauer A.; Schlund M.; Barreiro M.; Bellouin N.; Jones C.; Meehl G.A.; Predoi V.; Roberts M.J.; Eyring V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:21
英文摘要	More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past, present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) to assess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5. While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperature between 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperature increase, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperature record of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surface temperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models and high-resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long-standing biases. Some improvements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions, and root-mean-square errors for selected fields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread and higher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6 ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possible reason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in stronger shortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	climate model; CMIP; evaluation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185682
作者单位	Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; NCAS Computational Modelling Services (CMS), University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bock L.,Lauer A.,Schlund M.,et al. Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool[J],2020,125(21).
APA	Bock L..,Lauer A..,Schlund M..,Barreiro M..,Bellouin N..,...&Eyring V..(2020).Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(21).
MLA	Bock L.,et al."Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.21(2020).