气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using Prophet Forecasting Model to Characterize the Temporal Variations of Historical and Future Surface Urban Heat Island in China

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DOI	10.1029/2019JD031968
	Using Prophet Forecasting Model to Characterize the Temporal Variations of Historical and Future Surface Urban Heat Island in China
	Li L.; Zha Y.; Zhang J.; Li Y.; Lyu H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	125 期号:23
英文摘要	The changes in surface urban heat island (SUHI) are usually diurnal variations, seasonal variations, and interannual trends, yet previous temporal analysis methods have difficulties in decomposing time-series SUHI intensity (SUHII) into multiple time scales. This study proposed a prophet forecasting model to decompose time-series SUHII in 102 Chinese cities for the analysis of temporal variations. The occurrence time of SUHII extremums and annual SUHII amplitude (ASA) were investigated. Results show that the maximum daytime SUHII in 88% of the cities occurred in summer, and the minimum daytime SUHII in 80% of the cities occurred in winter. At night, the maximum SUHII in northern cities occurred in the cold season, while the minimum SUHII occurred in the hot season, which is the opposite of the results of southern cities. Larger ASA was observed in northern cities than southern cities, and the ASA was larger during the day than night. The interannual trend of SUHII was characterized and the SUHII in 2030 was predicted. Results show that the increasing trends of SUHII were found in 78% and 83% of the cities in the day and night, respectively. The interannual trend of daytime SUHII was negative (−0.01 ± 0.28°C/10 yr) in northern cities, while it was positive (0.22 ± 0.20°C/10 yr) in southern cities. At night, northern cities (0.19 ± 0.12°C/10 yr) had a faster increasing trend of SUHII than southern cities (0.06 ± 0.13°C/10 yr). The SUHII in China will be more evident in 2030, and various mitigation measures are needed for SUHII mitigation. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	interannual trend; land surface temperature; prophet forecasting model; temporal variation; urban heat island
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185591
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, College of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li L.,Zha Y.,Zhang J.,et al. Using Prophet Forecasting Model to Characterize the Temporal Variations of Historical and Future Surface Urban Heat Island in China[J],2020,125(23).
APA	Li L.,Zha Y.,Zhang J.,Li Y.,&Lyu H..(2020).Using Prophet Forecasting Model to Characterize the Temporal Variations of Historical and Future Surface Urban Heat Island in China.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(23).
MLA	Li L.,et al."Using Prophet Forecasting Model to Characterize the Temporal Variations of Historical and Future Surface Urban Heat Island in China".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125.23(2020).