气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional Climate Model Biases, Their Dependence on Synoptic Circulation Biases and the Potential for Bias Adjustment: A Process-Oriented Evaluation of the Austrian Regional Climate Projections

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD032824
	Regional Climate Model Biases, Their Dependence on Synoptic Circulation Biases and the Potential for Bias Adjustment: A Process-Oriented Evaluation of the Austrian Regional Climate Projections
	Maraun D.; Truhetz H.; Schaffer A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:6
英文摘要	The Austrian regional climate projections are based on an ensemble of bias adjusted regional climate model simulations. Bias adjustment (BA) improves the usability of climate projections for impact studies, but cannot mitigate fundamental model errors. This argument holds in particular for biases in the temporal dependence, which is strongly influenced by the large-scale circulation. Global climate models (GCMs), underlying regional climate projections, suffer from substantial circulation errors. We therefore, conduct a process-based evaluation of the Austrian climate projections focusing on large-scale circulation errors, their regional imprints and the potential for BA. First, we define nine synoptic weather types and assess how well the considered climate models represent their occurrence and persistence. Second, we assess biases in the overall dry and hot day probabilities, as well as conditional on synoptic weather type occurrence; and biases in the duration of dry and hot spells. Third, we investigate how these biases depend on biases in the occurrence and persistence of relevant synoptic weather types. And fourth, we study how much an overall BA improves these biases. Many GCMs misrepresent the occurrence and persistence of relevant synoptic weather types. These biases have a clear imprint on biases in dry and hot day occurrence and spell durations. BA in many cases helps to greatly reduce biases even in the presence of circulation biases, but may in some cases amplify conditional biases. Persistence biases are especially relevant for the representation of meteorological drought. Biases in the duration of dry spells cannot fully be mitigated by BA. © 2021. The Authors.
英文关键词	Austria; bias adjustment; climate model evaluation; large-scale circulation errors; regional climate projections
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185382
作者单位	Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maraun D.,Truhetz H.,Schaffer A.. Regional Climate Model Biases, Their Dependence on Synoptic Circulation Biases and the Potential for Bias Adjustment: A Process-Oriented Evaluation of the Austrian Regional Climate Projections[J],2021,126(6).
APA	Maraun D.,Truhetz H.,&Schaffer A..(2021).Regional Climate Model Biases, Their Dependence on Synoptic Circulation Biases and the Potential for Bias Adjustment: A Process-Oriented Evaluation of the Austrian Regional Climate Projections.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(6).
MLA	Maraun D.,et al."Regional Climate Model Biases, Their Dependence on Synoptic Circulation Biases and the Potential for Bias Adjustment: A Process-Oriented Evaluation of the Austrian Regional Climate Projections".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.6(2021).