气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Depth-Duration-Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD034193
	Depth-Duration-Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon
	Upadhyay D.; Mohapatra P.; Bhatia U.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:8
英文摘要	Uncertainty quantification and characterization in changing climate scenarios have a direct impact on the efforts toward mitigation and adaptation. The chaotic and nonlinear nature of atmospheric processes results in high sensitivity to initial conditions resulting in considerable variability. Multiple model ensembles of Earth System Models are often used to visualize the role of parametric uncertainties in mean and extreme attributes of precipitation trends in various time horizons. However, studies quantifying the role of internal variability in controlling extreme precipitation statistics in decadal and interdecadal scales are limited. Specifically, we quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty due to internal variability and model uncertainty in the depth and volatility of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall extremes of different duration and frequencies. We establish that the role of internal variability in extreme precipitation indices such as 100-years and 30-years return levels are comparable to the uncertainty arising from structural differences in the model captured through bias-corrected ensembles of multimodel outputs. From the regional analysis, we find that internal variability is not only comparable, but it also shows higher mean and uncertainty in estimating extreme precipitation indices in central India. The intensifying precipitation extremes have quantifiable impacts on Depth Duration Frequency (DDF) curves, which directly implicate hydraulic design and water resources planning and management. We show that combining outputs from multiple initial condition ensembles generated to span the range of internal climate variability can help us reduce uncertainty and provide the distinguished uncertainty bounds of DDF curves. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	extremes; internal variability; large ensembles; monsoons; volatility
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185293
作者单位	Discipline of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Upadhyay D.,Mohapatra P.,Bhatia U.. Depth-Duration-Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon[J],2021,126(8).
APA	Upadhyay D.,Mohapatra P.,&Bhatia U..(2021).Depth-Duration-Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(8).
MLA	Upadhyay D.,et al."Depth-Duration-Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.8(2021).