气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry-Climate Model

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD033656
	Stratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry-Climate Model
	Fleming E.L.; Liang Q.; Oman L.D.; Newman P.A.; Li F.; Hurwitz M.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169897X
卷号	126 期号:9
英文摘要	Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC-11 emissions increased during 2014–2017 relative to 2008–2012. In this study, we use a chemistry-climate model to investigate the stratospheric impacts of potential CFC-11 emissions continuing into the future. As a sensitivity test, we use a high CFC-11 scenario in which the inferred 2013–2016 average emissions of 72.5 Gg/yr is sustained to year 2100. This increases equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine by 15% in 2100, relative to the WMO (2018) baseline scenario in which future emissions decay with a bank release rate of 6.4%/year. Consistent with recent studies, the resulting ozone response has a linear dependence on the accumulated CFC-11 emissions, yielding global and Antarctic spring total ozone sensitivity per 1,000 Gg of −0.37 and −3.9 DU, respectively, averaged over 2017–2100. The deepened ozone hole reduces UV heating, causing a colder Antarctic lower stratosphere in spring/early summer. Through thermal wind balance, this accelerates the circumpolar jet which in turn alters planetary and gravity wave propagation through the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, and modifies the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Age of air in the high scenario is slightly younger than the baseline in the lower stratosphere globally during 2090–2099, with a maximum change of −0.1 years. Coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations show that the resulting greenhouse gas impact of CFC-11 is small and not statistically significant throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
英文关键词	Brewer-Dobson circulation; chlorofluorocarbons; greenhouse gas; ozone depletion; stratosphere; surface emissions
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/185237
作者单位	NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States; Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States; NOAA National Weather Service, Forecast Services Division, Silver Spring, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fleming E.L.,Liang Q.,Oman L.D.,et al. Stratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry-Climate Model[J],2021,126(9).
APA	Fleming E.L.,Liang Q.,Oman L.D.,Newman P.A.,Li F.,&Hurwitz M.M..(2021).Stratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry-Climate Model.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(9).
MLA	Fleming E.L.,et al."Stratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry-Climate Model".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.9(2021).