气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of ENSO diversity and cold tongue bias on seasonal prediction of South China late spring rainfall

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05732-w
	Effects of ENSO diversity and cold tongue bias on seasonal prediction of South China late spring rainfall
	Li R.K.K.; Tam C.Y.; Lau N.C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	151
结束页码	170
英文摘要	Seasonal prediction of South China April to May rainfall is examined based on forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model. El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of predictability, conveyed by the lower tropospheric anomalous western Pacific anticyclone and cyclone for El-Niño and La-Niña respectively. By separating ENSO into its diversity of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO, different effects on South China rainfall are revealed. From observations, while rainfall is enhanced following EP El-Niño and reduced following EP La-Niña, rainfall remains close to climatology following CP ENSO. However, the seasonal forecast model predicts CP ENSO effect on South China rainfall to be similar to EP ENSO. The model develops excessive westward extension of the eastern Pacific cold tongue within seasonal timescale. While model predicts tropical central Pacific anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) following CP ENSO realistically, the colder mean state is proposed to weaken the anomalous convection, which subsequently induces bias in the western Pacific anomalous rotational flow and hinders South China rainfall prediction. Meanwhile following EP ENSO, the colder mean state is proposed to strengthen the thermocline feedback, inducing stronger tropical eastern Pacific anomalous SST. While bias in the western Pacific anomalous rotational flow is also induced, the bias is far away from South China so rainfall prediction is still realistic. This study highlights the importance of model mean state in the fidelity of model ENSO diversity teleconnections on seasonal timescale. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Cold tongue; ENSO diversity; Mean state; Seasonal prediction; South China rainfall; Teleconnections
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183517
作者单位	Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, and Earth System Science Programme, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, and Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li R.K.K.,Tam C.Y.,Lau N.C.. Effects of ENSO diversity and cold tongue bias on seasonal prediction of South China late spring rainfall[J],2021.
APA	Li R.K.K.,Tam C.Y.,&Lau N.C..(2021).Effects of ENSO diversity and cold tongue bias on seasonal prediction of South China late spring rainfall.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Li R.K.K.,et al."Effects of ENSO diversity and cold tongue bias on seasonal prediction of South China late spring rainfall".Climate Dynamics (2021).