气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations under higher warming conditions

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05771-3
	Projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations under higher warming conditions
	Shahi N.K.; Das S.; Ghosh S.; Maharana P.; Rai S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	887
结束页码	911
英文摘要	The present study employed the latest high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4), driven by MPI-ESM-MR boundary conditions from the CORDEX-CORE South Asia framework to investigate the possible projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation and their associated dynamics during near future (NF; 2041–2060) and far future (FF; 2080–2099) with respect to the historical period (1995–2014) under RCP8.5 scenario. Extensive evaluation analysis indicates that the RegCM4 is fairly able to simulate the spatial–temporal distribution of the observed mean and extreme precipitation, low-level jet, and intra-seasonal variability i.e. active and break composite patterns of the precipitation anomalies over India during the historical period. A substantial decline in the projected precipitation during ISM is estimated over central and northwest India in NF (about 10–30%) as well as in FF (upto 50%), which may be attributed to the weakening and northward shift of low-level winds. The occurrences as well as the intensity of the extreme precipitation events are expected to increase over India in the future. The precipitation during the projected active spells will escalate over the monsoon core region. This is supported by the decrease in sea level pressure over land, which favors the winds to transport more moisture from the adjoining seas for the formation of convective clouds, which is partly indicated through the decline in net surface longwave radiation. On the other hand, the precipitation intensity during the projected break spells is expected to further decrease in the future. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Future projection; Indian summer monsoon; Intra-seasonal variability of monsoon; MPI–ESM–MR; RegCM4
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183483
作者单位	CNRS-IPSL Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, 91128, France; Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; Faculty of Science, Sri Sri University, Cuttack, India; K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shahi N.K.,Das S.,Ghosh S.,et al. Projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations under higher warming conditions[J],2021.
APA	Shahi N.K.,Das S.,Ghosh S.,Maharana P.,&Rai S..(2021).Projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations under higher warming conditions.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Shahi N.K.,et al."Projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations under higher warming conditions".Climate Dynamics (2021).