气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05821-w
	Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation
	Suarez-Gutierrez L.; Milinski S.; Maher N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	45
结束页码	64
英文摘要	We use a methodological framework exploiting the power of large ensembles to evaluate how well ten coupled climate models represent the internal variability and response to external forcings in observed historical surface temperatures. This evaluation framework allows us to directly attribute discrepancies between models and observations to biases in the simulated internal variability or forced response, without relying on assumptions to separate these signals in observations. The largest discrepancies result from the overestimated forced warming in some models during recent decades. In contrast, models do not systematically over- or underestimate internal variability in global mean temperature. On regional scales, all models misrepresent surface temperature variability over the Southern Ocean, while overestimating variability over land-surface areas, such as the Amazon and South Asia, and high-latitude oceans. Our evaluation shows that MPI-GE, followed by GFDL-ESM2M and CESM-LE offer the best global and regional representation of both the internal variability and forced response in observed historical temperatures. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate model evaluation; Climate models; Forced response; Internal variability; Large ensembles; SMILEs; Surface temperatures
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183435
作者单位	Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,Milinski S.,Maher N.. Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation[J],2021.
APA	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,Milinski S.,&Maher N..(2021).Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation.Climate Dynamics.
MLA	Suarez-Gutierrez L.,et al."Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation".Climate Dynamics (2021).