气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulating the characteristics of cut-off low rainfall over the Western Cape using WRF

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05532-8
	Simulating the characteristics of cut-off low rainfall over the Western Cape using WRF
	Abba Omar S.; Abiodun B.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-03-04
英文摘要	Cut-off lows (COLs) cause hazardous weather but also play a crucial role in the annual rainfall of the Western Cape, especially during a drought year. However, there is a dearth of information on the capability of atmospheric models to reproduce the characteristics of COLs over this region. This study evaluates the capability of a regional climate model (WRF) in simulating COLs over the Western Cape, with emphasis on the drought periods. Observation, reanalysis and simulations datasets were analysed for the study. The simulated climatology and inter-annual variability of COL with the associated patterns were compared to the reanalysis and observation results. The Self Organising Map (SOM) was used to group the observed and simulated COL rainfall to similar patterns. The results of the analysis show that WRF captures the seasonal and annual climatology of COL and the associated rainfall, but the model struggles to simulate the inter-annual variability of the systems. The model reproduces all the COL rainfall patterns well, though it under-estimates the frequency of dry COLs. However, WRF simulation agrees with the reanalysis that wetter COLs over the Western Cape are associated with more transport of warm, moist air from the tropics. The results of the study have application in improving weather and seasonal forecasting of COLs over the Western Cape. © 2021, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Cut-off lows; Drought; Regional climate model; Western Cape rainfall
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183391
作者单位	Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abba Omar S.,Abiodun B.J.. Simulating the characteristics of cut-off low rainfall over the Western Cape using WRF[J],2021,56(2021-03-04).
APA	Abba Omar S.,&Abiodun B.J..(2021).Simulating the characteristics of cut-off low rainfall over the Western Cape using WRF.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-03-04).
MLA	Abba Omar S.,et al."Simulating the characteristics of cut-off low rainfall over the Western Cape using WRF".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-03-04(2021).