气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A study of predictability of coupled ocean–atmosphere system using attractor radius and global attractor radius

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05534-6
	A study of predictability of coupled ocean–atmosphere system using attractor radius and global attractor radius
	Zhao H.; Zhang S.; Li J.; Ma Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-03-04
英文摘要	While ocean–atmosphere coupled models play an increasingly important role in weather-climate simulation and prediction, the predictability theory based on an atmosphere-only model has significant limitations in interpreting prediction results and guiding predictability studies. Here we use a conceptual ocean–atmosphere coupled model that describes the typical interactions of a synoptic-scale atmosphere with a seasonally-interannually varying upper ocean as well as a deep ocean that varies on decadal timescales to systematically study the predictability of a coupled system. Moving from an atmosphere-only system to an ocean–atmosphere coupled system, the initial-value predictability problem becomes a joint initial-value and boundary-value problem. Although the coupling process increases the uncertainties of the boundary, ocean signals with longer timescales are added to the atmosphere system, thus increasing its predictability. We then investigate the predictability characteristics of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the uncoupled Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). In the coupled CFS system, the practical predictability limit of the lower troposphere is significantly longer than in the uncoupled GEFS due to the contribution of low-frequency boundary signals from air-sea interactions. While further deep and thorough examination is necessary for understanding ocean predictability in the climate system, a preliminary discussion for the predictability of the upper and deep oceans within a coupled ocean–atmosphere framework is also presented in this study. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Air-sea interactions; CFS; Coupled models; GEFS; The predictability theory
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183390
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES), Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao, China; International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction (iHESP), Qingdao, China; The College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao H.,Zhang S.,Li J.,等. A study of predictability of coupled ocean–atmosphere system using attractor radius and global attractor radius[J],2021,56(2021-03-04).
APA	Zhao H.,Zhang S.,Li J.,&Ma Y..(2021).A study of predictability of coupled ocean–atmosphere system using attractor radius and global attractor radius.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-03-04).
MLA	Zhao H.,et al."A study of predictability of coupled ocean–atmosphere system using attractor radius and global attractor radius".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-03-04(2021).