气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4
	An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth
	Cruz-García R.; Ortega P.; Guemas V.; Acosta Navarro J.C.; Massonnet F.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-05-06
英文摘要	The quality of initial conditions (ICs) in climate predictions controls the level of skill. Both the use of the latest high-quality observations and of the most efficient assimilation method are of paramount importance. Technical challenges make it frequent to assimilate observational information independently in the various model components. Inconsistencies between the ICs obtained for the different model components can cause initialization shocks. In this study, we identify and quantify the contribution of the ICs inconsistency relative to the model inherent bias (in which the Arctic is generally too warm) to the development of sea ice concentration forecast biases in a seasonal prediction system with the EC-Earth general circulation model. We estimate that the ICs inconsistency dominates the development of forecast biases for as long as the first 24 (19) days of the forecasts initialized in May (November), while the development of model inherent bias dominates afterwards. The effect of ICs inconsistency is stronger in the Greenland Sea, in particular in November, and mostly associated to a mismatch between the sea ice and ocean ICs. In both May and November, the ICs inconsistency between the ocean and sea ice leads to sea ice melting, but it happens in November (May) in a context of sea ice expansion (shrinking). The ICs inconsistency tend to postpone (accelerate) the November (May) sea ice freezing (melting). Our findings suggest that the ICs inconsistency might have a larger impact than previously suspected. Detecting and filtering out this signal requires the use of high frequency data. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Arctic; Bias; Forecast; Initialization; Sea ice; Shock
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183378
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Nexus II-Planta 1 C/ Jordi Girona, 29, Barcelona, 08034, Spain; Météo-France, CNRM, CNRS, Groupe de Meteorologie Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse, France; Université catholique de Louvain, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cruz-García R.,Ortega P.,Guemas V.,et al. An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth[J],2021,56(2021-05-06).
APA	Cruz-García R.,Ortega P.,Guemas V.,Acosta Navarro J.C.,Massonnet F.,&Doblas-Reyes F.J..(2021).An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-05-06).
MLA	Cruz-García R.,et al."An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-05-06(2021).