气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subseasonal prediction and predictability of summer rainfall over eastern China in BCC

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05574-y
	Subseasonal prediction and predictability of summer rainfall over eastern China in BCC_AGCM2.2
	Liu Y.; Hu Z.-Z.; Wu R.; Jha B.; Li Q.; Chen L.; Yan J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-07-08
英文摘要	The present study examines subseasonal prediction skills and biases of the summer rainfall over eastern China in the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM2.2) and assesses the predictability of eastern China summer rainfall based on the multi-member forecasts. The BCC_AGCM2.2 model shows some skill in predicting summer rainfall over eastern China within the lead-times of 0–9 days. However, the subseasonal prediction skill is low on average, which is linked to the ability of the model in predicting the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The low prediction skills may partially be attributed to biases in the model, including a wider meridional span and a weaker intensity of rainbelt in Yangtze River valley, earlier meridional movement, and a further northward shift of WPSH compared to that in the observations. These biases result in an obvious dry bias along the monsoon rainbelt, and a wet bias to both the north and south sides. Moreover, as a major contributor to the predictability, the Pacific-Japan pattern is not well predicted for both its spatial pattern and subseasonal evolution. The low forecast skill of summer rainfall in eastern China seems due to a dominant role of the atmospheric internal variability and a minor influence of the sea surface temperature in extratropical climate variability. Nevertheless, enhanced prediction skills under the assumption of a perfect model imply the potential to improve the prediction skill of the summer rainfall over eastern China through reducing model biases. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Internal variability and SST forcing; Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern; Perfect model skill; Subseasonal prediction skill and predictability; Summer rainfall in eastern China; Western Pacific subtropical high
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183336
作者单位	Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, #46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Road, Beijing, 100081, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology, Nanjing, China; Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Innovim, Greenbelt, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu Y.,Hu Z.-Z.,Wu R.,et al. Subseasonal prediction and predictability of summer rainfall over eastern China in BCC_AGCM2.2[J],2021,56(2021-07-08).
APA	Liu Y..,Hu Z.-Z..,Wu R..,Jha B..,Li Q..,...&Yan J..(2021).Subseasonal prediction and predictability of summer rainfall over eastern China in BCC_AGCM2.2.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-07-08).
MLA	Liu Y.,et al."Subseasonal prediction and predictability of summer rainfall over eastern China in BCC_AGCM2.2".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-07-08(2021).