气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the uncertainty of future projections of Marine Heatwave events in the North Atlantic Ocean

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05529-3
	On the uncertainty of future projections of Marine Heatwave events in the North Atlantic Ocean
	Plecha S.M.; Soares P.M.M.; Silva-Fernandes S.M.; Cabos W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-07-08
英文摘要	Marine Heatwave (MHW) events have been increasing all around the world, causing severe impacts on marine ecosystems and on the economy of the aquaculture, fishing and tourism industries. In this study, the occurrence and characteristics of MHW events in the North Atlantic are analyzed for a recent period (1971–2000) and the two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). The analysis is based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data obtained from observations and from Global Climate Models (GCM) in the CMIP5 archieve. The results show that the GCMs present significant shortcomings in reproducing the SST and MHWs. The model results regarding the recent trends in MHW are in agreement with the ones observed, although they underestimate the values of MHW intensity and overestimate the values of both frequency and duration of events. The MHWs observed occur at a mean frequency of 1.90 events per year and are characterized by ~ 13 days of mean duration and 0.37 ºC of mean intensity, while the multi-model ensemble mean characterizes the events with 12 additional days and 0.15 ºC less intensity. Under climate change scenarios, when considering a stationary threshold, the models project noticeable increases in MHW event intensity that could reach 2 ºC above the 90th percentile and a quasi-permanent state of MHW by the end of the century. When a non-stationary threshold is considered, the characteristics of the events are similar to those obtained during the historical period. The GCMs significant biases in simulating the SST and leading to extremes like MHWs highlight the importance of improving GCM performance. © 2021, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; CMIP5; Extreme events; Sea surface temperature
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183316
作者单位	Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Campo Grande, Lisbon, Portugal; Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Plecha S.M.,Soares P.M.M.,Silva-Fernandes S.M.,et al. On the uncertainty of future projections of Marine Heatwave events in the North Atlantic Ocean[J],2021,56(2021-07-08).
APA	Plecha S.M.,Soares P.M.M.,Silva-Fernandes S.M.,&Cabos W..(2021).On the uncertainty of future projections of Marine Heatwave events in the North Atlantic Ocean.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-07-08).
MLA	Plecha S.M.,et al."On the uncertainty of future projections of Marine Heatwave events in the North Atlantic Ocean".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-07-08(2021).