气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Process-based analysis of relative contributions to the multi-model warming projection over East Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05614-7
	Process-based analysis of relative contributions to the multi-model warming projection over East Asia
	Fan H.; Hu X.; Yang S.; Choi Y.-S.; Lee Y.-K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	Climate models predict that East Asia (EA) will be substantially warmer than the present despite large inter-model uncertainty. This study investigated the major sources of the climate projections and the inter-model uncertainty. Particularly, we decomposed the differences in surface temperatures between the historical and RCP8.5 runs from 26 CMIP5 into partial surface temperature changes due to individual radiative and non-radiative processes through the climate feedback-response analysis method. Results show that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and subsequent water vapor feedback processes are primarily responsible for the surface warming over EA. Relatively more rapid warming over the snow/ice-covered area and southern China is due to feedback processes associated with surface albedo and cloud, respectively. The regional warming is, however, compensated by the surface non-radiative (sensible and latent heat) cooling. The inter-model projection uncertainty is substantially large over high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau mainly due to surface albedo feedback. Again, this large uncertainty is partly suppressed by surface non-radiative cooling. Water vapor and cloud feedbacks are the secondary important sources of the projection uncertainty. Moreover, the contributions of greenhouse forcing and atmospheric dynamics to the projection uncertainty are found to be minor. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate feedback; East Asia; RCP8.5 scenario; Surface warming projection; Uncertainty of model projection
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183311
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China; Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China; Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans Universtiy, Seoul, South Korea; Center for Climate/Environmental Change Prediction Research, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fan H.,Hu X.,Yang S.,et al. Process-based analysis of relative contributions to the multi-model warming projection over East Asia[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Fan H.,Hu X.,Yang S.,Choi Y.-S.,&Lee Y.-K..(2021).Process-based analysis of relative contributions to the multi-model warming projection over East Asia.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Fan H.,et al."Process-based analysis of relative contributions to the multi-model warming projection over East Asia".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).