气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Twenty-first century regional temperature response in Chile based on empirical-statistical downscaling

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05620-9
	Twenty-first century regional temperature response in Chile based on empirical-statistical downscaling
	Mutz S.G.; Scherrer S.; Muceniece I.; Ehlers T.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	Local scale estimates of temperature change in the twenty-first century are necessary for informed decision making in both the public and private sector. In order to generate such estimates for Chile, weather station data of the Dirección Meteorológica de Chile are used to identify large-scale predictors for local-scale temperature changes and construct individual empirical-statistical models for each station. The geographical coverage of weather stations ranges from Arica in the North to Punta Arenas in the South. Each model is trained in a cross-validated stepwise linear multiple regression procedure based on (24) weather station records and predictor time series derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The time period 1979–2000 is used for training, while independent data from 2001 to 2015 serves as a basis for assessing model performance. The resulting transfer functions for each station are then directly coupled to MPI-ESM simulations for future climate change under emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 to estimate the local temperature response until 2100 A.D. Our investigation into predictors for local scale temperature changes support established knowledge of the main drivers of Chilean climate, i.e. a strong influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in northern Chile and frontal system-governed climate in central and southern Chile. Temperature downscaling yields high prediction skill scores (ca. 0.8), with highest scores for the mid-latitudes. When forced with MPI-ESM simulations, the statistical models predict local temperature deviations from the 1979–2015 mean that range between − 0.5–2 K, 0.5–3 K and 2–7 K for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Chile; Climate change; Empirical statistical downscaling; Prediction; Statistical modelling
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183307
作者单位	Department of Geosciences, Universität Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany; Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, Technische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mutz S.G.,Scherrer S.,Muceniece I.,et al. Twenty-first century regional temperature response in Chile based on empirical-statistical downscaling[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Mutz S.G.,Scherrer S.,Muceniece I.,&Ehlers T.A..(2021).Twenty-first century regional temperature response in Chile based on empirical-statistical downscaling.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Mutz S.G.,et al."Twenty-first century regional temperature response in Chile based on empirical-statistical downscaling".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).