气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05618-3
	Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach
	Jyoteeshkumar Reddy P.; Sriram D.; Gunthe S.S.; Balaji C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	Tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall over India’s east coast are responsible for significant loss of life along affected coastlines. TCs forming over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region in October, November, and December have, in the past, intensified significantly at the time of landfall. The effects of climate change on TCs of different strengths and their characteristics such as track, intensity, precipitation, and convective available potential energy over the BoB region have not been well studied. This study explores the effects of climate change on two TCs of very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) category (TC Vardah and TC Madi), and two other TCs of extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) category (TC Hudhud and TC Phailin) formed over BoB, both in the short term (2035) and long term (2075). The high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the TCs under current and future climate conditions. The simulated TC track and intensity in the current climate agree well with the observations. To explore the impacts of climate change on TCs, the mean climate change signal, computed from future projections of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) in different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, is added to current climate conditions by using the pseudo global warming method. Results show a climate change-related reduction in TC translation speed, deepening of TC core, increased maximum surface wind, and increased precipitation over land in future RCP (4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios. The TCs in future RCP scenarios are seen to be more intensified compared to current climate simulations. Results demonstrate that all VSCS and ESCS category TCs considered in this study are likely to further intensify to the next higher category level with respect to their current classification, particularly in the far future RCP 6.0 and in the far future RCP 8.5 scenarios. The cyclone damage potential index of TC Vardah, TC Hudhud, and TC Phailin is projected to increase in a future warming climate. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Bay of Bengal; Climate change; Pseudo global warming method; Representative concentration pathway; Tropical cyclone; Weather research and forecasting model
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183296
作者单位	Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jyoteeshkumar Reddy P.,Sriram D.,Gunthe S.S.,et al. Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Jyoteeshkumar Reddy P.,Sriram D.,Gunthe S.S.,&Balaji C..(2021).Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Jyoteeshkumar Reddy P.,et al."Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).