气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The relative roles of decadal climate variations and changes in the ocean observing system on seasonal prediction skill of tropical Pacific SST

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05630-1
	The relative roles of decadal climate variations and changes in the ocean observing system on seasonal prediction skill of tropical Pacific SST
	Huang B.; Shin C.-S.; Kumar A.; L’Heureux M.; Balmaseda M.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	701
结束页码	725
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	In this study, we examined the temporal variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction skill during 1958–2016 in the context of the evolution in the tropical Pacific subsurface ocean observing system. To examine the temporal variations of the seasonal prediction skill, spatial correlation skill (SCS) of the predicted SST anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific Ocean within 10oS-10oN and temporal correlation skill (TCS) of the area-averaged SSTA throughout the same basin for the four periods of 1958–1978, 1979–1994, 1995–2005 and 2006–2016 were evaluated. These periods correspond to low amount, first increase, medium amount and second increase of the subsurface ocean temperature observations. Our results show that the influence of the observing system is detectable in the skill increase—both in SCS and TCS metrics—during the period 1995–2005. However, the impact of the subsurface ocean observing system is difficult to quantify in the prediction skill metrics during 2006–2016. It is shown that SCS is determined to a large extent by the magnitude of the observed SSTA in the target month. There is visible skill increase in the TCS before and after 1979, but this appears to be the result of variations in the properties of the verifying SST. Thus, potential impacts of the observing system are masked by climate variations of SST at decadal time scales, which may be real or result of variations in the SST observing system. In particular, the multidecadal modulations of the tropical Pacific SST associated with the climate shifts in the late 1970s and the early 2000s have more significant influence on prediction skill than the changes in observing system. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183290
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States; Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA/National Weather Service, College Park, MD, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang B.,Shin C.-S.,Kumar A.,et al. The relative roles of decadal climate variations and changes in the ocean observing system on seasonal prediction skill of tropical Pacific SST[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Huang B.,Shin C.-S.,Kumar A.,L’Heureux M.,&Balmaseda M.A..(2021).The relative roles of decadal climate variations and changes in the ocean observing system on seasonal prediction skill of tropical Pacific SST.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Huang B.,et al."The relative roles of decadal climate variations and changes in the ocean observing system on seasonal prediction skill of tropical Pacific SST".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).