气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05617-4
	Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX
	Wang X.; Chen D.; Pang G.; Gou X.; Yang M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	799
结束页码	812
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	Despite the importance of the Yellow River to China, climate change for the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has been investigated far less than for other regions. This work focuses on future changes in mean and extreme climate of the YRB for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and far-term (2081–2100) future, and assesses these with respect to the reference period (1986–2005) using the latest REgional MOdel (REMO) simulations, driven by three global climate models (GCMs) and assuming historical and future [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5] forcing scenarios, over the CORDEX East Asia domain at 0.22° horizontal resolution. The results show that REMO reproduces the historical mean climate state and selected extreme climate indices reasonably well, although some cold and wet biases exist. Increases in mean temperature are strongest for the far-term in winter, with an average increase of 5.6 °C under RCP 8.5. As expected, the future temperatures of the warmest day (TXx) and coldest night (TNn) increase and the number of frost days (FD) declines considerably. Changes to mean temperature and FD depend on elevation, which could be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. A substantial increase in precipitation (34%) occurs in winter under RCP 8.5 for the far-term. Interannual variability in precipitation is projected to increase, indicating a future climate with more extreme events compared to that of today. Future daily precipitation intensity and maximum 5-day precipitation would increase and the number of consecutive dry days would decline under RCP 8.5. The results highlight that pronounced warming at high altitudes and more intense rainfall could cause increased future flood risk in the YRB, if a high GHG emission pathway is realized. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate projection; Extreme precipitation; Extreme temperature; RCP scenario; REMO; Yellow river basin
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183282
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu, China; Reginal Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China; Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang X.,Chen D.,Pang G.,et al. Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Wang X.,Chen D.,Pang G.,Gou X.,&Yang M..(2021).Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Wang X.,et al."Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).