气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A multi-model study of atmosphere predictability in coupled ocean

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05651-w
	A multi-model study of atmosphere predictability in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems
	Ma Y.; Li J.; Zhang S.; Zhao H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1389
结束页码	1405
卷号	56 期号:2021-11-12
英文摘要	Of great importance for guiding numerical weather and climate predictions, understanding predictability of the atmosphere in the ocean − atmosphere coupled system is the first and critical step to understand predictability of the Earth system. However, previous predictability studies based on prefect model assumption usually depend on a certain model. Here we apply the predictability study with the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent and Attractor Radius to the products of multiple re-analyses and forecast models in several operational centers to realize general predictability of the atmosphere in the Earth system. We first investigated the predictability characteristics of the atmosphere in NCEP, ECMWF and UKMO coupled systems and some of their uncoupled counterparts and other uncoupled systems. Although the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System shows higher skills in geopotential height over the tropics, there is no certain model providing the most precise forecast for all variables on all levels and the multi-model ensemble not always outperforms a single model. Improved low-frequency signals from the air − sea and stratosphere − troposphere interactions that extend predictability of the atmosphere in coupled system suggests the significance of air − sea coupling and stratosphere simulation in practical forecast development, although uncertainties exist in the model representation for physical processes in air − sea interactions and upper troposphere. These inspire further exploration on predictability of ocean and stratosphere as well as sea − ice and land processes to advance our understanding of interactions of Earth system components, thus enhancing weather − climate prediction skills. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Atmosphere predictability; Attractor radius; Coupled ocean − atmosphere system; Multi-model study; Nonlinear local lyapunov exponent
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183242
作者单位	The College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Study, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES), Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Ocean Dynamics and Climate Function Lab, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao, China; International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction (iHESP), Qingdao, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma Y.,Li J.,Zhang S.,等. A multi-model study of atmosphere predictability in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems[J],2021,56(2021-11-12).
APA	Ma Y.,Li J.,Zhang S.,&Zhao H..(2021).A multi-model study of atmosphere predictability in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-11-12).
MLA	Ma Y.,et al."A multi-model study of atmosphere predictability in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-11-12(2021).