气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2018.09.002
	Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management
	Beeton T.A.; McNeeley S.M.; Miller B.W.; Ojima D.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	1815
结束页码	1835
卷号	23
英文摘要	Policies directing agencies and public land managers to incorporate climate change into management face several barriers. These stem, in part, from a disconnect between the information that is produced and the information needs of local resource managers. A disproportionate focus on the natural and physical sciences in climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment obscure understandings of complex social systems and the interactions and feedbacks in social-ecological systems. We use a qualitative case study of bison management on Department of the Interior-managed and tribal lands to explore how a social-science driven Determinants and Analogue Vulnerability Assessment (DAVA) can inform ecological response models, specifically simulation models that account for multiple drivers of change. First, we illustrate how a DAVA approach can help to: 1) identify key processes, entities, and interactions across scales; 2) document local impacts, indicators, and monitoring efforts of drought and climate; and 3) identify major tradeoffs and uncertainties. We then demonstrate how qualitative narratives can inform simulation models by: 1) prioritizing model components included in modeling efforts; 2) framing joint management and climate scenarios; and 3) parameterizing and evaluating model performance. We do this by presenting a conceptual joint agent-based/state-and-transition simulation modeling framework. Simulation models can represent multiple interacting variables and can identify surprising, emergent outcomes that might not be evident from qualitative analysis alone, and we argue that qualitative case studies can ground simulation models in local contexts and help make them more structurally realistic and useful. Together, these can provide a step toward developing actionable climate change adaptation strategies. © 2018 The Authors
英文关键词	Actionable science; Adaptation; Ecological drought; Social science; Social-ecological systems; Vulnerability
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183233
作者单位	North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, NESB A309, 1231 East Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, 2150 Centre Ave, Building C, Fort Collins, CO 80526, United States; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, 1231 East Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1476, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beeton T.A.,McNeeley S.M.,Miller B.W.,et al. Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management[J],2019,23.
APA	Beeton T.A.,McNeeley S.M.,Miller B.W.,&Ojima D.S..(2019).Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management.Climate Risk Management,23.
MLA	Beeton T.A.,et al."Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management".Climate Risk Management 23(2019).