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DOI | 10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.002 |
Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions | |
Kath J.; Mushtaq S.; Henry R.; Adeyinka A.A.; Stone R.; Marcussen T.; Kouadio L. | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 2212-0963 |
起始页码 | 1717 |
结束页码 | 1752 |
卷号 | 24 |
英文摘要 | Wheat is key global food crop that is heavily influenced by climatic variability. There has been extensive research on improving forecasts and management practices to minimise climate related yield losses, but less on how to handle yield losses caused by climate variability. We investigated whether index insurance could be used to manage climate related losses, specifically from winter rainfall drought for wheat crops in Australia. We utilised 31 years of yield data from 15 of Australia's key wheat producing regions. The winter rainfall index was developed and tested using generalised additive regression models, allowing for non-linear effects. Models with the winter rainfall index explained significant variation in wheat yields in each of the regions assessed. Wheat yield models had cross-validated R 2 values > 0.5 for two-thirds of the 15 regions modelled and best explained wheat yields in the Mallee, Western Australia (cross-validated R 2 of 0.70). Calculated fair premiums ranged from $8.62 to $77.1 AUD/ha, while maximum liability was $59.25 to $212.12 AUD/ha. Throughout the eastern most wheat growing regions the winter rainfall index was consistently inefficient (i.e. not beneficial). In contrast, the winter rainfall index was financially efficient (i.e. beneficial) in the western wheat regions of eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia, with benefits of up to $97 AUD/ha and loss reductions of $9 AUD/ha. The spatial variability in insurance efficiency was explained by rainfall variance. As rainfall variance increased the efficiency of the winter rainfall index insurance for wheat decreased. Our findings have two important policy implications; (1) in areas where climate change is anticipated to increase rainfall variability risk-transfer options, such as index insurance, may become less viable and as such policies that support the development of index insurance without acknowledging or adjusting for variability in its benefit could lead to inefficient outcomes for both government and agricultural producers; and (2) where index rainfall insurance is not efficient then greater emphasise may need to be placed on developing alternate types of index insurance (e.g. using satellites) and/or on risk-management and climate adaptation strategies that minimise losses. © 2019 The Authors |
英文关键词 | Climate adaptation; Climate variability; Drought; Risk transfer; Wheat |
来源期刊 | Climate Risk Management |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183220 |
作者单位 | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland 4350, Australia; Queensland Farmers Federation, North Quay, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kath J.,Mushtaq S.,Henry R.,et al. Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions[J],2019,24. |
APA | Kath J..,Mushtaq S..,Henry R..,Adeyinka A.A..,Stone R..,...&Kouadio L..(2019).Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions.Climate Risk Management,24. |
MLA | Kath J.,et al."Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions".Climate Risk Management 24(2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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