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DOI10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.002
Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions
Kath J.; Mushtaq S.; Henry R.; Adeyinka A.A.; Stone R.; Marcussen T.; Kouadio L.
发表日期2019
ISSN2212-0963
起始页码1717
结束页码1752
卷号24
英文摘要Wheat is key global food crop that is heavily influenced by climatic variability. There has been extensive research on improving forecasts and management practices to minimise climate related yield losses, but less on how to handle yield losses caused by climate variability. We investigated whether index insurance could be used to manage climate related losses, specifically from winter rainfall drought for wheat crops in Australia. We utilised 31 years of yield data from 15 of Australia's key wheat producing regions. The winter rainfall index was developed and tested using generalised additive regression models, allowing for non-linear effects. Models with the winter rainfall index explained significant variation in wheat yields in each of the regions assessed. Wheat yield models had cross-validated R 2 values > 0.5 for two-thirds of the 15 regions modelled and best explained wheat yields in the Mallee, Western Australia (cross-validated R 2 of 0.70). Calculated fair premiums ranged from $8.62 to $77.1 AUD/ha, while maximum liability was $59.25 to $212.12 AUD/ha. Throughout the eastern most wheat growing regions the winter rainfall index was consistently inefficient (i.e. not beneficial). In contrast, the winter rainfall index was financially efficient (i.e. beneficial) in the western wheat regions of eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia, with benefits of up to $97 AUD/ha and loss reductions of $9 AUD/ha. The spatial variability in insurance efficiency was explained by rainfall variance. As rainfall variance increased the efficiency of the winter rainfall index insurance for wheat decreased. Our findings have two important policy implications; (1) in areas where climate change is anticipated to increase rainfall variability risk-transfer options, such as index insurance, may become less viable and as such policies that support the development of index insurance without acknowledging or adjusting for variability in its benefit could lead to inefficient outcomes for both government and agricultural producers; and (2) where index rainfall insurance is not efficient then greater emphasise may need to be placed on developing alternate types of index insurance (e.g. using satellites) and/or on risk-management and climate adaptation strategies that minimise losses. © 2019 The Authors
英文关键词Climate adaptation; Climate variability; Drought; Risk transfer; Wheat
来源期刊Climate Risk Management
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183220
作者单位Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland 4350, Australia; Queensland Farmers Federation, North Quay, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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GB/T 7714
Kath J.,Mushtaq S.,Henry R.,et al. Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions[J],2019,24.
APA Kath J..,Mushtaq S..,Henry R..,Adeyinka A.A..,Stone R..,...&Kouadio L..(2019).Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions.Climate Risk Management,24.
MLA Kath J.,et al."Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions".Climate Risk Management 24(2019).
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