气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2020.100233
	Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions
	Lorie M.; Neumann J.E.; Sarofim M.C.; Jones R.; Horton R.M.; Kopp R.E.; Fant C.; Wobus C.; Martinich J.; O'Grady M.; Gentile L.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	2617
结束页码	2630
卷号	29
英文摘要	The National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) simulates flood damages resulting from sea level rise and storm surge along the contiguous U.S. coastline. The model also projects local-level investments in a set of adaptation measures under the assumption that these measures will be adopted when benefits exceed the costs over a 30-year period. However, it has been observed that individuals and communities often underinvest in adaptive measures relative to standard cost-benefit assumptions due to financial, psychological, sociopolitical, and technological factors. This study applies an updated version of the NCPM to incorporate improved cost-benefit tests and to approximate observed sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior. The updated NCPM is tested for two multi-county sites: Virginia Beach, VA and Tampa, FL. Sub-optimal adaptation approaches slow the implementation of adaptation measures throughout the 100-year simulation and they increase the amount of flood damages, especially early in the simulation. The net effect is an increase in total present value cost of $1.1 to $1.3 billion (2015 USD), representing about a 10% increase compared to optimal adaptation approaches. Future calibrations against historical data and incorporation of non-economic factors driving adaptation decisions could prove useful in better understanding the impacts of continued sub-optimal behavior. © 2020
英文关键词	Adaptation; Coastal flooding; Sea level rise
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183178
作者单位	Abt Associates, 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO 80302, United States; Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, United States; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, 20460, United States; P.O. Box 1000, 61 Route 9W PalisadesNY 10964, United States; Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Lynker Technologies, 3002 Bluff Street, Suite 101, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lorie M.,Neumann J.E.,Sarofim M.C.,et al. Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions[J],2020,29.
APA	Lorie M..,Neumann J.E..,Sarofim M.C..,Jones R..,Horton R.M..,...&Gentile L.E..(2020).Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions.Climate Risk Management,29.
MLA	Lorie M.,et al."Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions".Climate Risk Management 29(2020).