气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A new framework to quantify maize production risk from chilling injury in Northeast China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2021.100299
	A new framework to quantify maize production risk from chilling injury in Northeast China
	Li Z.; Zhang Z.; Zhang J.; Luo Y.; Zhang L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	3995
结束页码	4012
卷号	32
英文摘要	Agricultural production frequently suffers from meteorological risks. Timely and accurately estimating yield losses will greatly improve disaster risk management, especially for a useful tool to transfer risks—agricultural insurance. The weather index insurance products have increasingly become promising alternatives to traditional ones. However, the current single-index insurances, mainly based on a statistical model with a lower explanation ability and at an aggregate scale (e.g. county, province), are lack of mechanistic processes and having huge basis risk. Here, we proposed a new framework to quantify maize production risk by running the well calibrated CERES-Maize driven by various chilling scenarios. We first analyzed the chilling risk across Northeast China, then developed a composite chilling index (CCI) and CCI-based vulnerability curves to derive the corresponding yield losses. Finally, the specific pure premium rates were calculated respectively at 16 sites across the studied areas. The results showed that composite-index insurance (RMSE¯ ≤ 721 kg/ha) outperformed (R2 improved by 35%) every single index (RMSE¯ ≈ 1140 kg/ha) in quantifying yield loss. We believe our proposed framework will benefit insurer companies rapidly estimating yield losses and designing more promising products, and potentially apply into other regions for other crops and hazards to transfer climate risk in the future. © 2021 The Authors
英文关键词	Chilling injury; Composite index insurance; Crop model; Hazard scenarios-driven; Maize production risk
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183118
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology/MoE Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Hazards, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Z.,Zhang Z.,Zhang J.,et al. A new framework to quantify maize production risk from chilling injury in Northeast China[J],2021,32.
APA	Li Z.,Zhang Z.,Zhang J.,Luo Y.,&Zhang L..(2021).A new framework to quantify maize production risk from chilling injury in Northeast China.Climate Risk Management,32.
MLA	Li Z.,et al."A new framework to quantify maize production risk from chilling injury in Northeast China".Climate Risk Management 32(2021).