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DOI10.1016/j.crm.2021.100311
Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways
Talebian S.; Carlsen H.; Johnson O.; Volkholz J.; Kwamboka E.
发表日期2021
ISSN2212-0963
起始页码19
结束页码31
卷号32
英文摘要Significant effort has gone into identifying and assessing climate change impacts, often within tightly defined sectoral contexts or within specific administrative boundaries, for example in national adaptation plans. Interest is now growing among policy makers and researchers to better understand the transmission of climate impacts from one location to another. While impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research traditionally failed to take such climate impacts into account, a number of recent national-level scoping studies have recognized the potential significance of cross-border climate impacts. However, these studies have lacked an explicit futures perspective, and implicitly assumed static conditions under which cross-border climate impact is assessed. This paper addresses this research gap by developing a scenario-based framework for the study of future cross-border climate impacts using the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply this framework to assess future cross-border climate impacts in Kenya. We develop ‘extended SSPs’ in a combined top-down and bottom-up approach implemented through a co-production process together with local stakeholders. The bottom-up element of our approach consists of local drivers for understanding Kenya's vulnerability to future cross-border climate impacts, and the top-down element consists of the global SSPs as common boundary conditions. Finally, the extended SSPs combined with identified future cross-border climate impacts are used to stimulate a participatory co-production process to explore and evaluate different sets of adaptation options and activities. These future-oriented adaptation actions have the potential to improve Kenyan adaptation planning to mitigate and adapt to future climate impacts generated from global flows. © 2021 The Author(s)
英文关键词Cross-border climate impacts; Extended SSP; Scenarios; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)
来源期刊Climate Risk Management
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183103
作者单位Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Linnégatan 87D, Stockholm, 115 23, Sweden; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62/2.05, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Africa, Head Office, World Agroforestry Centre, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri, P.O. Box 30677, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
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Talebian S.,Carlsen H.,Johnson O.,et al. Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways[J],2021,32.
APA Talebian S.,Carlsen H.,Johnson O.,Volkholz J.,&Kwamboka E..(2021).Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways.Climate Risk Management,32.
MLA Talebian S.,et al."Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways".Climate Risk Management 32(2021).
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