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DOI | 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100311 |
Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways | |
Talebian S.; Carlsen H.; Johnson O.; Volkholz J.; Kwamboka E. | |
发表日期 | 2021 |
ISSN | 2212-0963 |
起始页码 | 19 |
结束页码 | 31 |
卷号 | 32 |
英文摘要 | Significant effort has gone into identifying and assessing climate change impacts, often within tightly defined sectoral contexts or within specific administrative boundaries, for example in national adaptation plans. Interest is now growing among policy makers and researchers to better understand the transmission of climate impacts from one location to another. While impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research traditionally failed to take such climate impacts into account, a number of recent national-level scoping studies have recognized the potential significance of cross-border climate impacts. However, these studies have lacked an explicit futures perspective, and implicitly assumed static conditions under which cross-border climate impact is assessed. This paper addresses this research gap by developing a scenario-based framework for the study of future cross-border climate impacts using the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply this framework to assess future cross-border climate impacts in Kenya. We develop ‘extended SSPs’ in a combined top-down and bottom-up approach implemented through a co-production process together with local stakeholders. The bottom-up element of our approach consists of local drivers for understanding Kenya's vulnerability to future cross-border climate impacts, and the top-down element consists of the global SSPs as common boundary conditions. Finally, the extended SSPs combined with identified future cross-border climate impacts are used to stimulate a participatory co-production process to explore and evaluate different sets of adaptation options and activities. These future-oriented adaptation actions have the potential to improve Kenyan adaptation planning to mitigate and adapt to future climate impacts generated from global flows. © 2021 The Author(s) |
英文关键词 | Cross-border climate impacts; Extended SSP; Scenarios; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) |
来源期刊 | Climate Risk Management |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183103 |
作者单位 | Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Linnégatan 87D, Stockholm, 115 23, Sweden; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62/2.05, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Africa, Head Office, World Agroforestry Centre, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri, P.O. Box 30677, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Talebian S.,Carlsen H.,Johnson O.,et al. Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways[J],2021,32. |
APA | Talebian S.,Carlsen H.,Johnson O.,Volkholz J.,&Kwamboka E..(2021).Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways.Climate Risk Management,32. |
MLA | Talebian S.,et al."Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways".Climate Risk Management 32(2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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