气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown

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DOI	10.1073/PNAS.2019617118
	Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown
	Marzianoa V.; Guzzettaa G.; Rondinone B.M.; Boccuni F.; Riccardo F.; Bella A.; Poletti P.; Trentini F.; Pezzotti P.; Brusaferro S.; Rezza G.; Iavicoli S.; Ajellid M.; Merlera S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:4
英文摘要	After the national lockdown imposed on March 11, 2020, the Italian government has gradually resumed the suspended economic and social activities since May 4, while maintaining the closure of schools until September 14. We use a model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission to estimate the health impact of different exit strategies. The strategy adopted in Italy kept the reproduction number Rt at values close to one until the end of September, with marginal regional differences. Based on the estimated postlockdown transmissibility, reopening of workplaces in selected industrial activities might have had a minor impact on the transmissibility. Reopening educational levels in May up to secondary schools might have influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility only marginally; however, including high schools might have resulted in a marked increase of the disease burden. Earlier reopening would have resulted in disproportionately higher hospitalization incidence. Given community contacts in September, we project a large second wave associated with school reopening in the fall. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Mathematical modeling; Reopening scenarios; SARS-CoV-2
语种	英语
scopus关键词	communicable disease control; epidemiology; hospitalization; human; isolation and purification; Italy; pandemic; prevention and control; procedures; quarantine; retrospective study; school; theoretical model; virology; Communicable Disease Control; COVID-19; Hospitalization; Humans; Italy; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics; Physical Distancing; Quarantine; Retrospective Studies; SARS-CoV-2; Schools
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180922
作者单位	Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, 38123, Italy; Dept. of Occup. and Environ. Med., Epidemiol. and Hyg., Ital. Workers' Compensation Auth., Monteporzio Catone, Rome, 00078, Italy; Department of Infectious Diseases, Istituto Superiore di Sanitá, Rome, 00161, Italy; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN 47405, United States; Laboratory for Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marzianoa V.,Guzzettaa G.,Rondinone B.M.,et al. Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown[J],2021,118(4).
APA	Marzianoa V..,Guzzettaa G..,Rondinone B.M..,Boccuni F..,Riccardo F..,...&Merlera S..(2021).Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(4).
MLA	Marzianoa V.,et al."Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.4(2021).