气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2012008118
	The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe
	Nadeau S.A.; Vaughan T.G.; Scire J.; Huisman J.S.; Stadler T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:9
英文摘要	The investigation of migratory patterns during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic before spring 2020 border closures in Europe is a crucial first step toward an in-depth evaluation of border closure policies. Here we analyze viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure to estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to border closures. Based on SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reconstruct a partial transmission tree of the early pandemic and coinfer the geographic location of ancestral lineages as well as the number of migration events into and between European regions. We find that the predominant lineage spreading in Europe during this time has a most recent common ancestor in Italy and was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei, China or Germany. We do not find evidence for preferential migration paths from Hubei into different European regions or from each European region to the others. Sustained local transmission is first evident in Italy and then shortly thereafter in the other European regions considered. Before the first border closures in Europe, we estimate that the rate of occurrence of new cases from within-country transmission was within the bounds of the estimated rate of new cases from migration. In summary, our analysis offers a view on the early state of the epidemic in Europe and on migration patterns of the virus before border closures. This information will enable further study of the necessity and timeliness of border closures. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Disease import; Phylogeography; SARS-CoV-2; Transmission
语种	英语
scopus关键词	epidemiology; Europe; genetics; human; isolation and purification; phylogeography; virology; virus genome; COVID-19; Europe; Genome, Viral; Humans; Phylogeography; SARS-CoV-2
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180506
作者单位	Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, Eidgenössiche Technische Hochschule Zürich, Basel, 4058, Switzerland; Computational Evolution Group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, 1015, Switzerland; Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössiche Technische Hochschule Zürich, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nadeau S.A.,Vaughan T.G.,Scire J.,et al. The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe[J],2021,118(9).
APA	Nadeau S.A.,Vaughan T.G.,Scire J.,Huisman J.S.,&Stadler T..(2021).The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(9).
MLA	Nadeau S.A.,et al."The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.9(2021).