气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2020962118
	Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming
	Po-Chedley S.; Santer B.D.; Fueglistaler S.; Zelinka M.D.; Cameron-Smith P.J.; Painter J.F.; Fu Q.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:13
英文摘要	A long-standing discrepancy exists between general circulation models (GCMs) and satellite observations: The multimodel mean temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT) in the tropics warms at approximately twice the rate of observations. Using a large ensemble of simulations from a single climate model, we find that tropical TMT trends (1979–2018) vary widely and that a subset of realizations are within the range of satellite observations. Realizations with relatively small tropical TMT trends are accompanied by subdued sea-surface warming in the tropical central and eastern Pacific. Observed changes in sea-surface temperature have a similar pattern, implying that the observed tropical TMT trend has been reduced by multidecadal variability. We also assess the latest generation of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). CMIP6 simulations with muted warming over the central and eastern Pacific also show reduced tropical tropospheric warming. We find that 13% of the model realizations have tropical TMT trends within the observed trend range. These simulations are from models with both small and large climate sensitivity values, illustrating that the magnitude of tropical tropospheric warming is not solely a function of climate sensitivity. For global averages, one-quarter of model simulations exhibit TMT trends in accord with observations. Our results indicate that even on 40-y timescales, natural climate variability is important to consider when comparing observed and simulated tropospheric warming and is sufficiently large to explain TMT trend differences between models and satellite data. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; General circulation models; Natural climate variability; Satellite data
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; climate change; sea surface temperature; simulation; warming
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180111
作者单位	Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, United States; Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Po-Chedley S.,Santer B.D.,Fueglistaler S.,等. Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming[J],2021,118(13).
APA	Po-Chedley S..,Santer B.D..,Fueglistaler S..,Zelinka M.D..,Cameron-Smith P.J..,...&Fu Q..(2021).Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(13).
MLA	Po-Chedley S.,et al."Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.13(2021).