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DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2020431118 |
A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change | |
Yoon J.; Klassert C.; Selby P.; Lachaut T.; Knox S.; Avisse N.; Harou J.; Tilmant A.; Klauer B.; Mustafa D.; Sigel K.; Talozi S.; Gawel E.; Medellín-Azuara J.; Bataineh B.; Zhang H.; Gorelick S.M. | |
发表日期 | 2021 |
ISSN | 00278424 |
卷号 | 118期号:14 |
英文摘要 | Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan's situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human-natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan's freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan's water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Hydroeconomic modeling; Jordan; Multiagent model; Multisector dynamics; Water security |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | Article; climate change; controlled study; coupled human natural system; desalination; economic status; engineering and technology; equity; freshwater environment; freshwater security; household income; Jordan; lowest income group; metric system; priority journal; resource shortage; simulation; social hierarchy; social status; vulnerability; water insecurity; welfare |
来源期刊 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180011 |
作者单位 | Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, United States; Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, 04318, Germany; Department of Mechanical Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, United Kingdom; Département de Génie Civil et de Génie des Eaux, UniversitéLaval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada; Department of Geography, King's College London, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom; Faculty of Civil Engineering, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, 22110, Jordan; Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Leipzig University, Leipzig, 04109, Germany; Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Merced, Merced, CA 95343, United States; Water Infrastructure Development, Bechtel Corporation, Reston, VA 20190, United States; College of Science and Engineering, Texas AandM University, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, United States; Department of Earth System Sc... |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yoon J.,Klassert C.,Selby P.,et al. A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change[J],2021,118(14). |
APA | Yoon J..,Klassert C..,Selby P..,Lachaut T..,Knox S..,...&Gorelick S.M..(2021).A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(14). |
MLA | Yoon J.,et al."A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.14(2021). |
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